Archive
Neither Guilt Nor Apocalypse are Sound Policy Instruments
Bjorn Lomborg reports in Business Day that the latest IPCC report – the “code red” document states that “frequency and intensity of cold extremes has decreased.” Just what we might expect.
The Lancet reports that half a million die from heat every year. At the same time 4.5 million people die from cold. The last 10 years have seen, globally, an increase of 116,000 deaths from heat but a decrease of 283,000 deaths from cold. We have then seen 167,000 lives saved per year
This is neither apocalypse nor anything to be guilty about. Code red? Code for – look at both benefits and costs. You might be surprised.
Reliable forecasts versus speculative opinion….
The apparently trivial here has a high degree of reliability and is, in a genuine rather than business jargon use of the term, robust – retains its truth across a wide variety of settings: “I very frequently get the question: “What’s going to change in the next 10 years?” That’s a very interesting question.
I almost never get the question: “What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?” And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.
You can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. In our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, “Jeff I love Amazon, I just wish the prices were a little higher.” Or, “I love Amazon, I just wish you’d deliver a little slower.” Impossible.
So we know the energy we put into these things today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”
— Jeff Bezo
A Critical Distinction
But what does it mean to believe in science? The British science writer Matt Ridley draws a pointed distinction between “science as a philosophy” and “science as an institution.”
The former grows out of the Enlightenment, which Mr. Ridley defines as “the primacy of rational and objective reasoning.”
The latter, like all human institutions, is erratic, prone to falling well short of its stated principles. Mr. Ridley says the Covid pandemic has “thrown into sharp relief the disconnect between science as a philosophy and science as an institution.”
Wall St Journal 23 July (remainder pay walled)
No mandate to dictate to others…
“You have no responsibility
to live up to what other people think you ought to accomplish. I have no responsibility to be like they expect me to be. It’s their mistake, not my failing.” Richard Feynman
Eye2theLongRun 