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Demography is Your Destiny

Satisfying Labels are Indeed Dangerous

Frequently it seems, we are inclined to rush for “satisfying” labels such as “racism”, “bigotry”, “chauvinism”, “foreigner”, or, even more dangerously “inequity”, when a little attention to demography offers a simple, understandable and surprisingly strong explanation for things we don’t understand at first glance.

Vaccination rates may well be a case in point. Noticing that vaccination rates amongst Maori and Pacific communities have been lower than amongst the wider population there has been no shortage of “influencers” and experts pointing to all sorts of labels which carry vast amounts of political and emotional freight to “explain” why this would be.

Yet these communities have different age structures to the wider population often with an over representation of the young in them. Vaccines were not even released for younger age groups until well after the older age groups (the 65+ sub groups) had had them available for a good while. The release for age groups was staggered (for various reasons having little or nothing to do with ethnicity) over a significant period.

Thus the arithmetic and the calendar tells us a good deal more about the difference in rates than melodramatic statements and labels.

The danger arises because once some phenomena is safely relegated to its satisfying “ism” then listening stops, exploration for better explanation stops, emotionally charged or ratings driven behaviour abounds and lessons are not learned.

That is no way to improve our welfare. It is also pointlessly wrong and unpleasant.

Categories: Explanation
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